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It was a difficult journey through California again for the Montreal Canadiens. They managed only an overtime loss in their first two games, and in the final contest, they were soundly outplayed in Los Angeles.
However, they got an outstanding performance from Jakub Dobes to stay in the contest early, and absolutely stole it with two late goals to win one they did not deserve 4-3.
Wilde Horses
The Canadiens were outshot 16-1 in the first period by a team that is not that good. Dobes made the difference and spared Montreal from embarrassment before the period ended. Dobes had his worst game of the season on Tuesday night in San Jose with a Goals Saved Above Expected of minus 3.55. That’s a lot of bad goals allowed, according to the algorithms.
He recovered spectacularly on Saturday in Los Angeles with a GSAE of plus 2.44. He kept Montreal in a game in which they were horrendous. Without him, there would have been no late-game fireworks thanks to the top line shining with two late goals to win it.
Juraj Slafkovsky keyed all of it. He is not deferring at all to his more veteran line mates since returning to the top line. In Slafkovsky’s first moment of greatness, he and Scott Laughton fought for the puck on the half-wall. Slafkovsky won the battle, then dragged Laughton around the ice. Slafkovsky took it to the middle for his 22nd goal of the season to tie his career high.
It was a quintessential power forward move by Slafkovsky. It’s been extremely encouraging watching Slafkovsky with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield again. He’s the answer on the wing on the first line. He belongs there. They click well when he is on that line.
In the third period, it was Slafkovsky again who took a Lane Hutson pass and ripped his 23rd goal of the year to tie it. Slafkovsky wasn’t done. The next time on the ice, the line clicked again. Caufield stole the puck. He fired a pass to Slafkovsky that was off his skate. He deftly handled it, then found Suzuki who one-timed it for the game winner with under five minutes left.
Wilde Goats
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The Canadiens need a practice badly. They are in disarray. Defensively, the team is a complete mess. The Kings are the 30th ranked offence in the NHL. Only two teams are worse. The Canadiens made Los Angeles look like a juggernaut on offence.
The pairing of Mike Matheson and Kaiden Guhle is horrible. They had a Goals Expected of an eight per cent share. As two left side defenders and they can’t get comfortable together trying to figure out how to crush a lifetime of instincts.
The Canadiens badly need David Reinbacher to be a top-four NHL defender. Everyone would then be in their proper seat: Matheson-Dobson, Hutson-Reinbacher, Guhle-Carrier. No matter how head coach Martin St. Louis has tried to slice the pie this year, the pie is missing a right shot defender.
Wilde Cards
Everyone with any interest in the Canadiens is currently engaged in a raging argument. The focal point is where to blame a goals against total that is among the worst in the entire National Hockey League.
Is it the goaltending or the defence, and the answer is, of course, it’s both. Inside their own zone, there is hardly anyone performing that well. By the numbers, one can point fingers practically everywhere and not miss the mark.
In net, it’s ugly. Whatever metric chosen, it is ugly. There’s a perception that Samuel Montembeault can’t stop a 55-foot floater. That perception is correct. On low-danger shots from a distance, Montembeault is 53rd among 58 goalies that have played 20 games.
That metric of low-danger shot attempts save percentage must be changed to a 10 game minimum to include Jacob Fowler. In the easy shot category, Fowler is 10th in the league. On 50-footer success, Montembeault and Fowler are on either side of the Grand Canyon.
However, what about high-danger shot attempts? Surely, Montembeault is better than Fowler when the shots get tough. Shockingly, Fowler is the second best goalie on high-danger shots in the entire league. Montembeault is 56th right near the bottom. Jakub Dobes is a much better 25th.
It begs the question: what is the second best goalie on high danger chances and the 10th best goalie on low danger chances doing in Laval? That could make sense if Ilya Sorokin was in goal for the Canadiens, or Logan Thompson, but not what the present Canadiens’ goalies are offering.
The defence is contributing to the malaise as well. It’s just a matter of perception. What came first? The chicken or the egg? In this example, the chicken is laying so many eggs, no one can keep accurate track of it.
Defensively, the Canadiens are not performing well in the man-on-man system. The metrics are, once again, quite damning. Here are the season-long Expected Goals numbers for the lines: Only Suzuki with Caufield and Slafkovsky is a regular line at better than 50 per cent shot share with 57 per cent. The worst is the so called defensive line of Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson at a 34 per cent share. The aging-out line is getting absolutely caved in.
Note as well that in the short time Kirby Dach joined the top line, they were destroyed. They had only a 41 per cent share. Somehow Dach took two players who are always in the 55 to 60 range and transformed them into a 41 share.
On defence, the story is simple. The best pairings all have Lane Hutson on them. Whoever Hutson plays with is tops, though his best partnership is with Noah Dobson. Dobson and Hutson have a dominant 62 share. Surprisingly, Dobson and Mike Matheson are only at 49 per cent. The truth is, when up by one goal Hutson is the right defender to have on the ice.
Hutson’s Corsi is top-10 in the entire NHL. It’s difficult to imagine that he is so good defensively, but that’s what the numbers say. Incidentally, second best this season, among defenders, is another player in the minors Adam Engstrom.
The summary, therefore, is kind of painful. The best defender defensively is never on the ice at the end of the game trying to hold a lead. The second best defender defensively is in the minors in Engstrom. The best goalie is in the minors as well in Fowler.
Overall, the Canadiens are the second ranked team on offence and 24th ranked team on defence in the league. On offence, more of the same is in order. On defence, one can see easy corrections with the will to look at it with fresh eyes.
The recommendations would be, first, that Fowler and Engstrom get called up. Second, that Hutson sees the ice at the end of games when trying to hold a one goal lead and cut down that so-called defensive line’s ice time drastically.
Switching off of man-to-man defensive marking would be an idea as well. The reason is simple. Zone coverage couldn’t be worse, so why be pigheaded about not trying it? Just try it. It can’t be worse than the chase scenes we’re seeing now in the defensive zones.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
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