Canada’s economy shrunk in the last quarter of 2025: StatCan

Statistics Canada says the economy capped off a volatile year with a contraction in the final quarter of 2025.

The agency said Friday that real gross domestic product declined 0.6 per cent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, falling short of expectations from the Bank of Canada and most economists for flat growth. Real GDP per capita was unchanged in the fourth quarter.

StatCan said the main reason for the contraction was businesses drawing down their inventories — in other words, selling off goods or materials that weren’t reproduced in the quarter.

The economy swung back and forth between gains and losses every quarter last year as sharp changes in exports tied to U.S. tariffs drove volatility in GDP data.

Last quarter’s contraction came after real GDP growth of 2.4 per cent in the third quarter, which StatCan revised down slightly from initial estimates.

The economy also shrank in the second quarter as tariffs took full effect in the economy, but StatCan also revised that decline to 0.9 per cent from previous estimates of a steeper 1.8 per cent contraction.

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The agency said real GDP rose 1.7 per cent in 2025 overall, cooling from two per cent growth in each of the previous two years and marking the slowest pace of annual growth since 2016 outside the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025,” StatCan said in its report.

The agency said exports rose in consecutive quarters to close 2025 but shipments to the United States did not fully recover after the sharp second quarter drop.

A rise in household spending and increased government capital spending — particularly on weapons systems — also gave the economy a lift in the fourth quarter. Business investment, meanwhile, declined.

StatCan said real GDP was up 0.2 per cent in December as the manufacturing sector rebounded to partially offset two straight months of declines. Wholesale trade also grew for the first time in three months while the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sectors saw activity drop.

The agency’s advance estimates suggest real GDP was flat in January. Initial readings suggest the momentum in manufacturing was short-lived and the industry contracted to start the year.

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